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Cover artwork: a copy of Thinking, Fast and Slow lying on a desk beside an open logbook, whose page shows a small hand-built bar chart annotated "the base rate - you build it yourself".

15 Sep 2026 10 min read

Thinking, Fast and Slow in a Market With No Base Rates

Kahneman's best advice to any decision-maker is to stop trusting your own story and look at the base rate. That advice assumes the base rate exists. Across most of the markets I build in,…

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Cover artwork: the article title beside twelve horizontal rules approaching a black vertical gate. Eleven stop at the gate; one blue rule passes through a slot and continues, labelled "passes - the rest compound".

14 Sep 2026 9 min read

Blitzscaling Is a Diagnostic, Not a Doctrine

Blitzscaling gets quoted at me more than any other business book, usually by people who have only read the title. Here is what it actually argues, the half of it I use, and the…

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